Why everyone is a gambler
Sunday, May 11th, 2008I’m a pretty serious student of the financial markets these days. The other morning on CNBC, they were doing a little shtick where they were simulating a poker game with some big name hedge fund managers. All the while they were (sort of) playing, they were discussing the similarities between poker and trading. These hedge fund managers had also done well in some professional poker tournaments.
This little vignette solidified something I’d been thinking about for a while. That is, everyone is a gambler.
When you study the markets and people who make a business of trading in the markets, you slowly become aware that everything is simply a game of probabilities, risk and reward (for more of my thoughts on this, you can check out a post a wrote a while back specifically on this subject). These very same principles that allow an individual (or a professional) to make money in the markets also guide the games of chance at the casinos. They also guide pretty much every other decision we make every day of our lives.
When asked about the similarities of trading and playing poker, one of the hedge fund guys explained that in both cases, you are presented with a certain amount of information, but there is always a piece of information that you don’t have. You have to make a decision on how to handle that missing piece of information based on your understanding of the information you do have. You make a decision, place your bets, and hope for the best.
Honestly, can you say that this is different than anything else in life? There is no certainty about tomorrow. We are always dealing with an incomplete information set and making decisions the best we can based on what we know. When it gets right down to it, we always have to move forward, choose our path, and hope for the best.
This is why I say everyone is a gambler. So, why do we consider gambling to be “bad”? What makes tying up hundreds of thousands of retirement dollars in equity-based mutual funds (which can lose their value) any more virtuous than hitting the casinos? Or, what about the person who invests a large portion of their net worth into a new business venture — are they somehow more noble than the blackjack player? I have some thoughts, but I’d like to hear yours first in the comments. What do you think?
